Monkeys control a robot arm with thoughts
Two monkeys with tiny sensors in their brains have learned to control a mechanical arm with just their thoughts, using it to reach for and grab food and even to adjust for the size and stickiness of morsels when necessary, scientists reported on Wednesday.
The report, released online by the journal Nature, is the most striking demonstration to date of brain-machine interface technology. Scientists expect that technology will eventually allow people with spinal cord injuries and other paralyzing conditions to gain more control over their lives.
The findings suggest that brain-controlled prosthetics, while not practical, are at least technically within reach.
In previous studies, researchers showed that humans who had been paralyzed for years could learn to control a cursor on a computer screen with their brain waves and that nonhuman primates could use their thoughts to move a mechanical arm, a robotic hand, a robot on a treadmill or a small vehicle.
The new experiment goes a step further. In it, the monkeys' brains seem to have adopted the mechanical appendage as their own, refining its movement as it interacted with real objects in real time. The monkeys had their own arms gently restrained while they learned to use the added one.
Experts not involved with the study said the findings were likely to accelerate interest in human testing, especially given the need to treat head and spinal injuries in veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan.
"This study really pulls together all the pieces from earlier work and provides a clear demonstration of what's possible," said Dr. William Heetderks , director of the extramural science program at the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering.
Dr. John Donoghue, director of the Institute of Brain Science at Brown University, said the new report was "important because it's the most comprehensive study showing how an animal interacts with complex objects, using only brain activity."
The researchers, from the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University, used monkeys partly because of their anatomical similarities to humans and partly because they are quick learners.
In the experiment, two macaques first used a joystick to gain a feel for the arm, which had shoulder joints, an elbow and a grasping claw with two mechanical fingers.
Then, just beneath the monkeys' skulls, the scientists implanted a grid about the size of a large freckle. It sat on the motor cortex, over a patch of cells known to signal arm and hand movements. The grid held 100 tiny electrodes, each connecting to a single neuron, its wires running out of the brain and to a computer.
The computer was programmed to analyze the collective firing of these 100 motor neurons, translate that sum into an electronic command and send it instantaneously to the arm, which was mounted flush with the left shoulder.
The scientists used the computer to help the monkeys move the arm at first, essentially teaching them with biofeedback.
After several days, the monkeys needed no help. They sat stationary in a chair, repeatedly manipulating the arm with their brain to reach out and grab grapes, marshmallows and other nuggets dangled in front of them. The snacks reached the mouths about two-thirds of the time — an impressive rate, compared with earlier work.
The monkeys learned to hold the grip open on approaching the food, close it just enough to hold the food and gradually loosen the grip when feeding.
On several occasions, a monkey kept its claw open on the way back, with the food stuck to one finger. At other times, a monkey moved the arm to lick the fingers clean or to push a bit of food into its mouth while ignoring a newly presented morsel.
The animals were apparently freelancing, discovering new uses for the arm, showing "displays of embodiment that would never be seen in a virtual environment," the researchers wrote.
"In the real world, things don't work as expected," said the senior author of the paper, Dr. Andrew Schwartz, a professor of neurobiology at the University of Pittsburgh. "The marshmallow sticks to your hand or the food slips, and you can't program a computer to anticipate all of that.
"But the monkeys' brains adjusted. They were licking the marshmallow off the prosthetic gripper, pushing food into their mouth, as if it were their own hand."
The co-authors were Meel Velliste, Sagi Perel, M. Chance Spalding and Andrew Whitford.
Scientists have to clear several hurdles before this technology becomes practical, experts said. Implantable electrode grids do not generally last more than a period of months, for reasons that remain unclear.
Experts not involved with the study said the findings were likely to accelerate interest in human testing, especially given the need to treat head and spinal injuries in veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan.
"This study really pulls together all the pieces from earlier work and provides a clear demonstration of what's possible," said Dr. William Heetderks , director of the extramural science program at the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering.
Dr. John Donoghue, director of the Institute of Brain Science at Brown University, said the new report was "important because it's the most comprehensive study showing how an animal interacts with complex objects, using only brain activity."
The researchers, from the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University, used monkeys partly because of their anatomical similarities to humans and partly because they are quick learners.
In the experiment, two macaques first used a joystick to gain a feel for the arm, which had shoulder joints, an elbow and a grasping claw with two mechanical fingers.
Then, just beneath the monkeys' skulls, the scientists implanted a grid about the size of a large freckle. It sat on the motor cortex, over a patch of cells known to signal arm and hand movements. The grid held 100 tiny electrodes, each connecting to a single neuron, its wires running out of the brain and to a computer.
The computer was programmed to analyze the collective firing of these 100 motor neurons, translate that sum into an electronic command and send it instantaneously to the arm, which was mounted flush with the left shoulder.
The scientists used the computer to help the monkeys move the arm at first, essentially teaching them with biofeedback.
After several days, the monkeys needed no help. They sat stationary in a chair, repeatedly manipulating the arm with their brain to reach out and grab grapes, marshmallows and other nuggets dangled in front of them. The snacks reached the mouths about two-thirds of the time — an impressive rate, compared with earlier work.
The monkeys learned to hold the grip open on approaching the food, close it just enough to hold the food and gradually loosen the grip when feeding.
On several occasions, a monkey kept its claw open on the way back, with the food stuck to one finger. At other times, a monkey moved the arm to lick the fingers clean or to push a bit of food into its mouth while ignoring a newly presented morsel.
The animals were apparently freelancing, discovering new uses for the arm, showing "displays of embodiment that would never be seen in a virtual environment," the researchers wrote.
"In the real world, things don't work as expected," said the senior author of the paper, Dr. Andrew Schwartz, a professor of neurobiology at the University of Pittsburgh. "The marshmallow sticks to your hand or the food slips, and you can't program a computer to anticipate all of that.
"But the monkeys' brains adjusted. They were licking the marshmallow off the prosthetic gripper, pushing food into their mouth, as if it were their own hand."
The co-authors were Meel Velliste, Sagi Perel, M. Chance Spalding and Andrew Whitford.
Scientists have to clear several hurdles before this technology becomes practical, experts said. Implantable electrode grids do not generally last more than a period of months, for reasons that remain unclear.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Nepal's lawmakers abolish the country's monarchy.
Nepal's lawmakers have abolished the monarchy and declared the country a republic, ending 239 years of royal rule in the Himalayan nation.
Nepal's lawmakers abolish the country's monarchy.
Nepal's lawmakers have abolished the monarchy and declared the country a republic, ending 239 years of royal rule in the Himalayan nation.
Monday, May 26, 2008
UnaSur, the South America Union, Is Born Today in Brazil
Leaders of South America are scheduled to meet this Friday, May 23, in Brazil for a summit. During the encounter the visiting heads of government and host Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be signing the legal framework of the charter for the Union of South American Nations, UnaSur.
Originally identified as the South American Community of Nations, it was first conceived in 2005 in Cuzco, Peru, during a regional leaders' summit.
UnaSur is made up of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Surinam, Uruguay and Bolivia.
The leaders of all member countries have confirmed their assistance to Brasília with the exception of Uruguay and Peru that will be represented by the vice president and the Foreign Affairs minister, respectively.
The blueprint of the charter was worked out earlier in the month in a technical meeting in Venezuela. However once signed "since it is a treaty," according to Brazilian diplomatic sources, the charter must be considered and approved by the different legislative branches.
A "transition period" until the full legitimate formality has been achieved will also be discussed, "although it's not central to Friday's agenda," added Brazilian diplomatic sources.
Another issue on the table is the Brazilian initiative for the creation of a South American Defense Council, with the purpose of coordinating defense policies in the region and work towards a common understanding on the matter.
Brazilian Defense minister Nelson Jobim last month visited most countries in the region to discuss the proposal with local officials from the Executive branch and legislative Defense committees.
"It's more ambitious than a military alliance, it's a forum to discuss and agree on common defense policies," said Jobim. The proposal was well received in most countries but Uruguay asked for more time to consider the concept.
UnaSur was scheduled to meet in January in Colombia but was delayed for March and then indefinitively because of the conflict between Colombia and Ecuador triggered when the incursion of Colombian forces in Ecuadorian border territory to eliminate a guerrilla camp.
Originally identified as the South American Community of Nations, it was first conceived in 2005 in Cuzco, Peru, during a regional leaders' summit.
UnaSur is made up of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Surinam, Uruguay and Bolivia.
The leaders of all member countries have confirmed their assistance to Brasília with the exception of Uruguay and Peru that will be represented by the vice president and the Foreign Affairs minister, respectively.
The blueprint of the charter was worked out earlier in the month in a technical meeting in Venezuela. However once signed "since it is a treaty," according to Brazilian diplomatic sources, the charter must be considered and approved by the different legislative branches.
A "transition period" until the full legitimate formality has been achieved will also be discussed, "although it's not central to Friday's agenda," added Brazilian diplomatic sources.
Another issue on the table is the Brazilian initiative for the creation of a South American Defense Council, with the purpose of coordinating defense policies in the region and work towards a common understanding on the matter.
Brazilian Defense minister Nelson Jobim last month visited most countries in the region to discuss the proposal with local officials from the Executive branch and legislative Defense committees.
"It's more ambitious than a military alliance, it's a forum to discuss and agree on common defense policies," said Jobim. The proposal was well received in most countries but Uruguay asked for more time to consider the concept.
UnaSur was scheduled to meet in January in Colombia but was delayed for March and then indefinitively because of the conflict between Colombia and Ecuador triggered when the incursion of Colombian forces in Ecuadorian border territory to eliminate a guerrilla camp.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Commodities Prices: Speculation Exposed
"The most exciting thing that happened Tuesday was the testimony of Michael Masters to the Senate Committee on Homeland Security (who have sweeping powers) as he spilled the beans and gave the Senate a very detailed inside view of exactly how speculators are the primary cause of high commodity prices.
Don't look for any commentary on this in the WSJ or most media outlets, you would think this entire investigation isn't going on as you watch CNBC wearing their Oil $130 party hats this evening!
What we are experiencing is a demand shock coming from a new category of participant in the commodities futures markets: Institutional Investors. Specifically, these are Corporate and Government Pension Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, University Endowments and other Institutional Investors. Collectively, these investors now account on average for a larger share of outstanding commodities futures contracts than any other market participant.
With very bold categories in his presentation like "Index Speculator Demand is Driving Prices Higher" Masters lays out a simple and compelling case that illustrates how over $250Bn of speculative money has poured into the commodities markets since 2003, driving the average cost of commodities indexed up 183% WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ACTUAL DEMAND.
It's not just oil, there is a chart on page 4 of his presentation that shows how on Jan 1st 2003 sugar futures stockpiled totaled 2.3Bn pounds. On March 12th of this year, speculators had stockpiled 48Bn pounds of sugar. Soybean oil went from 163M pounds to 4.5Bn pounds, corn from 242M bushels to 2.4Bn bushels, coffee from 195M pounds to 2.4Bn pounds. wheat from 166M bushels to 1.1Bn bushels. Even cattle and hogs have had 10-fold increases in speculation. This is your "demand," 10 month supplies of commodities removed from the markets over 5 years and held by speculators who point to the "demand" as evidence of a tight supply - A TOTAL CROCK!
Speculators "consumed" as much additional oil as China in the past 5 years (848M barrels) while gasoline stockpiles have risen from 1.1Bn gallons to 3.5Bn gallons and natural gas stored by speculators has gone up from 331M BTUs to an insane 2.3 Billion BTUs. Aluminum - 10x, Nickel - 5x, Zinc - 10x, Copper - 7x, Gold - 10x, Silver - 15x — Madness!
In fact, Index Speculators have now stockpiled, via the futures market, the equivalent of 1.1 billion barrels of petroleum, effectively adding eight times as much oil to their own stockpile as the United States has added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the last five years.
Demand for futures contracts can only come from two sources: Physical Commodity Consumers and Speculators. Speculators include the Traditional Speculators who have always existed in the market, as well as Index speculators. Five years ago, Index Speculators were a tiny fraction of the commodities futures markets. Today, in many commodities futures markets, they are the single largest force. The huge growth in their demand has gone virtually undetected by classically-trained economists who almost never analyze demand in futures markets.
I urge you to set aside the time to read this full report, it is an excellent presentation of pretty much everything I've been "ranting" about for 2 years put together by a guy who trades commodities for a living and is, as I am, totally fed up with the destruction of our economy and the suffering that is being caused by this rampant commodity speculation. In order for Goldman Sacks to make $1Bn, every driver on Earth needs to pay another $1 per gallon for gas this year - is that an efficient market? If all 2Bn of us just send GS a check for .50, THAT would be efficient. Unfortunately, as we discussed last week, Goldman's partners in crime who got together and formed the ICE back in 2003 (when all this started) also want their Billions - no matter what it costs you.
One particularly troubling aspect of Index Speculator demand is that it actually increases the more prices increase. This explains the accelerating rate at which commodity futures prices (and actual commodity prices) are increasing. Rising prices attract more Index Speculators, whose tendency is to increase their allocation as prices rise. So their profit-motivated demand for futures is the inverse of what you would expect from price-sensitive consumer behavior.
When Congress passed the Commodity Exchange Act in 1936, they did so with the understanding that speculators should not be allowed to dominate the commodities futures markets. Unfortunately, the CFTC has taken deliberate steps to allow certain speculators virtually unlimited access to the commodities futures markets.
Masters closes with the key issue, that:
The CFTC has granted Wall Street banks an exemption from speculative position limits when these banks hedge over-the-counter swaps transactions. This has effectively opened a loophole for unlimited speculation. When Index Speculators enter into commodity index swaps, which 85-90% of them do, they face no speculative position limits.
The really shocking thing about the Swaps Loophole is that Speculators of all stripes can use it to access the futures markets. So if a hedge fund wants a $500 million position in Wheat, which is way beyond position limits, they can enter into swap with aWall Street bank and then the bank buys $500 million worth of Wheat futures. In the CFTC's classification scheme all Speculators accessing the futures markets through the Swaps Loophole are categorized as "Commercial" rather than "Non-Commercial." The result is a gross distortion in data that effectively hides the full impact of Index Speculation.
Additionally, the CFTC has recently proposed that Index Speculators be exempt from all position limits, thereby throwing the door open for unlimited Index Speculator "investment." The CFTC has even gone so far as to issue press releases on their website touting studies they commissioned showing that commodities futures make good additions to Institutional Investors' portfolios.
This is how the current administration, through the "Enron Loophole" and other directives to the CTFC, has perverted an organization that is supposed to be CONTROLLING speculation and turned them into more than an enabler, but an actual cheerleader for the commodity markets. You would think this would be news but the same people who are sucking over $2Tn a year out of our pockets (over and above what we paid for the same commodities 5 years ago) are also the people who control the mainstream media and the very government that is listening to this testimony.
In order to put a stop to this YOU have to act. YOU have to get mad, YOU have to tell people what is happening because no one else is doing it are they? Feel free to copy this, Email it, print flyers - whatever - this is something that needs to be talked about and what better time than the day oil hits $130 a barrel while you drive less than you did last year, when it was $51.03 in January!"
Don't look for any commentary on this in the WSJ or most media outlets, you would think this entire investigation isn't going on as you watch CNBC wearing their Oil $130 party hats this evening!
What we are experiencing is a demand shock coming from a new category of participant in the commodities futures markets: Institutional Investors. Specifically, these are Corporate and Government Pension Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, University Endowments and other Institutional Investors. Collectively, these investors now account on average for a larger share of outstanding commodities futures contracts than any other market participant.
With very bold categories in his presentation like "Index Speculator Demand is Driving Prices Higher" Masters lays out a simple and compelling case that illustrates how over $250Bn of speculative money has poured into the commodities markets since 2003, driving the average cost of commodities indexed up 183% WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ACTUAL DEMAND.
It's not just oil, there is a chart on page 4 of his presentation that shows how on Jan 1st 2003 sugar futures stockpiled totaled 2.3Bn pounds. On March 12th of this year, speculators had stockpiled 48Bn pounds of sugar. Soybean oil went from 163M pounds to 4.5Bn pounds, corn from 242M bushels to 2.4Bn bushels, coffee from 195M pounds to 2.4Bn pounds. wheat from 166M bushels to 1.1Bn bushels. Even cattle and hogs have had 10-fold increases in speculation. This is your "demand," 10 month supplies of commodities removed from the markets over 5 years and held by speculators who point to the "demand" as evidence of a tight supply - A TOTAL CROCK!
Speculators "consumed" as much additional oil as China in the past 5 years (848M barrels) while gasoline stockpiles have risen from 1.1Bn gallons to 3.5Bn gallons and natural gas stored by speculators has gone up from 331M BTUs to an insane 2.3 Billion BTUs. Aluminum - 10x, Nickel - 5x, Zinc - 10x, Copper - 7x, Gold - 10x, Silver - 15x — Madness!
In fact, Index Speculators have now stockpiled, via the futures market, the equivalent of 1.1 billion barrels of petroleum, effectively adding eight times as much oil to their own stockpile as the United States has added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the last five years.
Demand for futures contracts can only come from two sources: Physical Commodity Consumers and Speculators. Speculators include the Traditional Speculators who have always existed in the market, as well as Index speculators. Five years ago, Index Speculators were a tiny fraction of the commodities futures markets. Today, in many commodities futures markets, they are the single largest force. The huge growth in their demand has gone virtually undetected by classically-trained economists who almost never analyze demand in futures markets.
I urge you to set aside the time to read this full report, it is an excellent presentation of pretty much everything I've been "ranting" about for 2 years put together by a guy who trades commodities for a living and is, as I am, totally fed up with the destruction of our economy and the suffering that is being caused by this rampant commodity speculation. In order for Goldman Sacks to make $1Bn, every driver on Earth needs to pay another $1 per gallon for gas this year - is that an efficient market? If all 2Bn of us just send GS a check for .50, THAT would be efficient. Unfortunately, as we discussed last week, Goldman's partners in crime who got together and formed the ICE back in 2003 (when all this started) also want their Billions - no matter what it costs you.
One particularly troubling aspect of Index Speculator demand is that it actually increases the more prices increase. This explains the accelerating rate at which commodity futures prices (and actual commodity prices) are increasing. Rising prices attract more Index Speculators, whose tendency is to increase their allocation as prices rise. So their profit-motivated demand for futures is the inverse of what you would expect from price-sensitive consumer behavior.
When Congress passed the Commodity Exchange Act in 1936, they did so with the understanding that speculators should not be allowed to dominate the commodities futures markets. Unfortunately, the CFTC has taken deliberate steps to allow certain speculators virtually unlimited access to the commodities futures markets.
Masters closes with the key issue, that:
The CFTC has granted Wall Street banks an exemption from speculative position limits when these banks hedge over-the-counter swaps transactions. This has effectively opened a loophole for unlimited speculation. When Index Speculators enter into commodity index swaps, which 85-90% of them do, they face no speculative position limits.
The really shocking thing about the Swaps Loophole is that Speculators of all stripes can use it to access the futures markets. So if a hedge fund wants a $500 million position in Wheat, which is way beyond position limits, they can enter into swap with aWall Street bank and then the bank buys $500 million worth of Wheat futures. In the CFTC's classification scheme all Speculators accessing the futures markets through the Swaps Loophole are categorized as "Commercial" rather than "Non-Commercial." The result is a gross distortion in data that effectively hides the full impact of Index Speculation.
Additionally, the CFTC has recently proposed that Index Speculators be exempt from all position limits, thereby throwing the door open for unlimited Index Speculator "investment." The CFTC has even gone so far as to issue press releases on their website touting studies they commissioned showing that commodities futures make good additions to Institutional Investors' portfolios.
This is how the current administration, through the "Enron Loophole" and other directives to the CTFC, has perverted an organization that is supposed to be CONTROLLING speculation and turned them into more than an enabler, but an actual cheerleader for the commodity markets. You would think this would be news but the same people who are sucking over $2Tn a year out of our pockets (over and above what we paid for the same commodities 5 years ago) are also the people who control the mainstream media and the very government that is listening to this testimony.
In order to put a stop to this YOU have to act. YOU have to get mad, YOU have to tell people what is happening because no one else is doing it are they? Feel free to copy this, Email it, print flyers - whatever - this is something that needs to be talked about and what better time than the day oil hits $130 a barrel while you drive less than you did last year, when it was $51.03 in January!"
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
US Tax assessors boggled by housing price buble collapse.
By D.L. BENNETT
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 05/12/08
For less than the price of a decent used car, you can buy a home in Atlanta today.
Actually, real estate agents list a dozen choices for $10,000 or less.Recent headlines:
Step up in price to $20,000 and your choices expand 10 fold.
The prices seem absurd but they are part of a real estate market suffering with rampant foreclosures, mortgage fraud, abandoned investor properties, a collapsing mortgage industry and other ills. The market is unlike anything seen in metro Atlanta in years and it has local tax assessors and appraisers as confused as anyone.
What is the value of a lot if no one can get a loan to buy it? How should you value a home that sits on the market for a year with no offers? When a neighborhood has several foreclosures, short sales and abandoned properties, do they set the market?
The training and rules for mass appraisal say taxable values should be set at fair market value or at the price for a sale between a "willing buyer and willing seller." Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales are not supposed to count toward setting taxable values.
Therein lies the problem for tax assessors.
As Fulton's chief appraiser, Burt Manning finds it hard to believe any parcel in Fulton is worth less than $10,000.
Still, real estate listings prove they are.
"We are trying to understand all these things," said Manning. "What's the right answer? We don't know. It's tough. I've got entire neighborhoods where all I've got is distressed sales. I don't have any good sales."
In fact, seven of Atlanta's least-expensive homes are listed on average for $8,800 but taxed at an average value of nearly $93,000.
The cheapest, at 336 Adelle Street in the Lakewood area, comes in at $5,900. Tax records list its value at $101,700.
The problems are pronounced in areas like West End, Lakewood and Vine City.
Wayne Flanagan, a RE/MAX agent who sells bank-owned properties, said in zip codes like 30310 and 30315 values have taken a nosedive faster than public officials can account for.
"There are some price ranges like $20,000-$80,000 where 90 percent of the properties on the market are foreclosures," Flanagan said. "You've got one bank competing against another. It's a spiraling situation, downward."
The agent said when tax values and true values are way apart, it can keep properties from selling and further depress values. Flanagan said he'd had a $95,000 deal on a duplex fall through recently because it was being taxed at $300,000. The buyer didn't want to be saddled with taxes at that level.
"They (government officials) are going to have to take a look at this," Flanagan said. "We are experiencing some of the same problems as Detroit, taxes are so high they drive down value."
Fulton noted the downturn in its 2008 values by marking down about 86,000 properties a total of nearly $364 million. Manning said in a typical year, Fulton tallies about 27,000 sales assessors consider as valid to set tax values. This year he counted only 20,000 due to the increase in distressed sales.
"I am less uncomfortable with values than I've been in a long time," Manning said. "These are unusual times."
Still, the issues aren't confined to Atlanta and Fulton.
Record foreclosure numbers across the region have appraisers in Cobb, Gwinnett, DeKalb and other counties wrestling with similar concerns. They also struggle with where to set the values for homes that don't sell or lots that normally are easy to value but now are tumbling because lenders won't give builders money to build new homes.
Thomas Stump, interim chief appraiser in DeKalb, said the number of "good sales" dropped from 12,400 last year to 8,500 this year. The lower number makes it even harder for the assessors to come up with values, he said.
"We have people in our office who want to sell but can't find a buyer," Stump said. "Still, there are buyers out there. It may take much longer. I don't think you can say a property has no value because it won't sell."
DeKalb reduced the values on about 4,500 parcels in 2008 and expects to drop many more in 2009 if the market slump continues.
"It's just a very strange market," he said. "It's very difficult to determine values."
Calvin Wimberly, a real estate agent who primarily sells bank-owned properties and has two listings under $10,000, said home prices in some areas have tumbled 200 or 300 percent in the past year. He said many suffered from mortgage fraud that artificially inflated values.
Wimberly said he'd recently sold a home in West End that tells the tale of what's happened in some neighborhoods. The home sold in March 2004 for $305,000 and then in August 2004 for $700,000. It tumbled to $122,900 in a sale last year. It sold recently for $51,000.
Those are the kind of numbers that have public officials scratching their heads.
"I had the toughest time trying to convince the bank the price was correct," Wimberly said. "They thought I was out of my mind."
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 05/12/08
For less than the price of a decent used car, you can buy a home in Atlanta today.
Actually, real estate agents list a dozen choices for $10,000 or less.Recent headlines:
Step up in price to $20,000 and your choices expand 10 fold.
The prices seem absurd but they are part of a real estate market suffering with rampant foreclosures, mortgage fraud, abandoned investor properties, a collapsing mortgage industry and other ills. The market is unlike anything seen in metro Atlanta in years and it has local tax assessors and appraisers as confused as anyone.
What is the value of a lot if no one can get a loan to buy it? How should you value a home that sits on the market for a year with no offers? When a neighborhood has several foreclosures, short sales and abandoned properties, do they set the market?
The training and rules for mass appraisal say taxable values should be set at fair market value or at the price for a sale between a "willing buyer and willing seller." Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales are not supposed to count toward setting taxable values.
Therein lies the problem for tax assessors.
As Fulton's chief appraiser, Burt Manning finds it hard to believe any parcel in Fulton is worth less than $10,000.
Still, real estate listings prove they are.
"We are trying to understand all these things," said Manning. "What's the right answer? We don't know. It's tough. I've got entire neighborhoods where all I've got is distressed sales. I don't have any good sales."
In fact, seven of Atlanta's least-expensive homes are listed on average for $8,800 but taxed at an average value of nearly $93,000.
The cheapest, at 336 Adelle Street in the Lakewood area, comes in at $5,900. Tax records list its value at $101,700.
The problems are pronounced in areas like West End, Lakewood and Vine City.
Wayne Flanagan, a RE/MAX agent who sells bank-owned properties, said in zip codes like 30310 and 30315 values have taken a nosedive faster than public officials can account for.
"There are some price ranges like $20,000-$80,000 where 90 percent of the properties on the market are foreclosures," Flanagan said. "You've got one bank competing against another. It's a spiraling situation, downward."
The agent said when tax values and true values are way apart, it can keep properties from selling and further depress values. Flanagan said he'd had a $95,000 deal on a duplex fall through recently because it was being taxed at $300,000. The buyer didn't want to be saddled with taxes at that level.
"They (government officials) are going to have to take a look at this," Flanagan said. "We are experiencing some of the same problems as Detroit, taxes are so high they drive down value."
Fulton noted the downturn in its 2008 values by marking down about 86,000 properties a total of nearly $364 million. Manning said in a typical year, Fulton tallies about 27,000 sales assessors consider as valid to set tax values. This year he counted only 20,000 due to the increase in distressed sales.
"I am less uncomfortable with values than I've been in a long time," Manning said. "These are unusual times."
Still, the issues aren't confined to Atlanta and Fulton.
Record foreclosure numbers across the region have appraisers in Cobb, Gwinnett, DeKalb and other counties wrestling with similar concerns. They also struggle with where to set the values for homes that don't sell or lots that normally are easy to value but now are tumbling because lenders won't give builders money to build new homes.
Thomas Stump, interim chief appraiser in DeKalb, said the number of "good sales" dropped from 12,400 last year to 8,500 this year. The lower number makes it even harder for the assessors to come up with values, he said.
"We have people in our office who want to sell but can't find a buyer," Stump said. "Still, there are buyers out there. It may take much longer. I don't think you can say a property has no value because it won't sell."
DeKalb reduced the values on about 4,500 parcels in 2008 and expects to drop many more in 2009 if the market slump continues.
"It's just a very strange market," he said. "It's very difficult to determine values."
Calvin Wimberly, a real estate agent who primarily sells bank-owned properties and has two listings under $10,000, said home prices in some areas have tumbled 200 or 300 percent in the past year. He said many suffered from mortgage fraud that artificially inflated values.
Wimberly said he'd recently sold a home in West End that tells the tale of what's happened in some neighborhoods. The home sold in March 2004 for $305,000 and then in August 2004 for $700,000. It tumbled to $122,900 in a sale last year. It sold recently for $51,000.
Those are the kind of numbers that have public officials scratching their heads.
"I had the toughest time trying to convince the bank the price was correct," Wimberly said. "They thought I was out of my mind."
Monday, May 12, 2008
After the boomers, meet the children dubbed 'baby losers'.
After the boomers, meet the children dubbed 'baby losers'
Across Spain, France and Italy, young middle-class professionals with good degrees and diplomas are facing a lifetime on low salaries with unrewarding jobs, forever poorer than their parents. Investigation by Graham Keeley in Barcelona, Jason Burke in Paris and Tom Kington in Rome
Graham Keeley
Article history
The Observer, Sunday May 11 2008 Article history
The kids learning to swim at the pool near Via Casilina, in a working-class suburb of Rome, could not ask for better qualified instructors. One is a literature graduate with a masters in communications from Brussels, while another, Antonio di Martino, is an aerospace engineer.
Di Martino, 30, still has to finish his degree, but with a one-year-old baby and another child on the way, and afternoons and evenings working at the pool to bring in €1,100 (£870) a month, something had to give.
'Some of the pressure to graduate also slipped away when I saw one friend get his degree and then only earn €500 a month at an Italian space firm and another get €800 a month at the European Space Agency,' said Di Martino, bouncing his son on his knee as his partner, Mattia, rushes out the door to her teaching job, which pays €1,200 a month. 'My parents bought me my flat, making me one of the lucky ones since prices are crazy and I would never get a mortgage,' he said. 'I spent two years of savings on doing up the bathroom and now I worry about my son. One problem, one unforeseen expense and things get serious.'
He said price checking in supermarkets was the norm - 'something my mother never did'. And the family thinks hard before travelling. 'With petrol and tolls, even a trip to my parents in southern Italy now costs €100.'
Di Martino is part of a new phenomenon sweeping Europe. As he spoke, Africa Garcia Arias, 32, was nearing the end of a 45-hour week in a busy Madrid hospital. Six months pregnant, Arias will scale back her working week in the coming month. But, though she is exhausted, this is hardly much relief. Her salary of €1,600 will drop to €1,000 a month.
On Friday night, Lorenzo, 35, was on a train heading to work a nightshift for a major American sales website's Berlin branch. He trained as a historian and a photographer. 'The pay is just about OK - €2,700 a month for a 40-hour week - but it is hardly the job I dreamed of doing,' he said.
And in Paris, Nathalie, 24, was sitting in a friend's tiny rented flat in the rundown 20th arrondissement, the poorest district of the city, having finished another month of unpaid 'work experience' for a major publishing company. Tomorrow she will be at the second home of her parents in Brittany to sit in the sun in the garden, read and swim. 'I look at how they live, and how they lived when they were my age or a few years older, and I realise that I will never have any of that,' she said. 'I am not sure whether to be angry, sad or simply resigned.'
With inflation soaring, property prices sky high, wages relatively static, labour markets gridlocked and sluggish or slowing economies, Nathalie, Lorenzo, Arias and Di Martino are among tens of millions of Europeans raised to expect that their degrees and diplomas will assure them a relatively high quality of life who are now realising that the world has changed. The disappointment is a shock with big political, social, cultural, even demographic consequences.
'I am angry. I know a lot of people who are in the same situation and our qualifications are not being rewarded,' said Arias. For Nathalie, the weekend in her parents' seaside home will leave 'a bitter taste in my mouth'.
Freelance architect Emilio Tinoco Vertiz, 32, earns just €1,000 a month. 'Who needs architects when no one wants to build houses?' he said. In Spain people such as Emilio are known from their pay as the 'mileuristas' (thousand euro-ers). In France they are the 'babylosers' - a term coined by sociologist Louis Chauvel to contrast them with 'babyboomers'. According to Chauvel, 41, a sociologist at the National Foundation for Political Science, for the first time in recent history a generation of French citizens aged between 20 and 40 can expect a lower standard of living than the one before. 'Mileuristas or babylosers: it's the same story,' he said. 'They have an average of three years more education than their parents, a worse job and a lower standard of living.'
In 1973, only 6 per cent of recent university leavers in France were unemployed; now the rate is 25 to 30 per cent; salaries have stagnated for 20 years while property prices have doubled or trebled, though the overall proportion of French people living in poverty has not changed. Whereas in the 1960s the poor were mainly the old, now they are the young; in 1970, salaries for 50-year-olds were only 15 per cent higher than those for workers of 30; the gap now is 40 per cent.
'Some talk of a war between the generations, but that's a little simplistic. It is more that the system means that the haves are keeping what they have and no one is helping the have-nots,' said Chauvel. 'The big determinant in France now of success is not your educational level but the wealth of your parents, if they can support you during your twenties as you fight your way into a closed employment market.'
French economists speak of 'insiders and outsiders'. The insiders are those who already have a job and are well-defended by the battery of French laws protecting the workforce and the unions. The outsiders are those without work which, naturally, include newcomers on the job market. Chauvel says the problem is particularly bad in Latin countries where parents are expected to support their children much longer.
In Spain, even during the boom years when growth outstripped the rest of the European Union, the 'mileuristas' found themselves unable to afford their own homes. But now with the Spanish economy crashing, prospects are grim. In the first three months of 2008, Spanish unemployment hit 9.6 per cent, the highest for three years and second only to Slovakia in the 27-nation EU.
Once one of Europe's success stories, Spain's Socialist government has been forced to cut its 2008 growth estimate to 2.3 per cent from 3.1 per cent. Josep Comajuncosa, a macro-economics specialist at the Esade business school in Barcelona, said the downturn may help the 'mileuristas' buy homes but it will not solve their basic problem. 'What is needed is a model of growth based on greater productivity and new industries primarily service-based such as IT, financial services and new technology which can raise salaries,' he said.
In an effort to save Spain from the worst effects of the downturn, the government has announced an ambitious public works programme, including a massive social housing plan that could help many to finally buy property. Such policies are likely to become common.
In Germany, according to a report published by consultancy McKinsey, those earning between 70 and 150 per cent of the average income - the standard definition of the middle class - will make up less than half the population by 2020, against 54 per cent today.
Only eight years ago, 62 per cent of Germans were in the middle-class bracket, according to a second study. Key markers of middle-class status - such as overseas holidays - are disappearing or becoming blurred. 'I haven't been away for two years,' said Aurel Thurn, 38, who works for an art gallery in Berlin and has top-level qualifications, 10 years' experience and speaks four languages fluently. 'I have enough money for my rent, my telephone and food. But that's it.'
Many feel that Germany's middle class has not benefited from the nation's recent economic recovery. The result has been political pressure, with trade union activism and a wave of industrial action aimed at securing higher wages and enhanced benefits as well as lower taxes for average earners and higher taxes on the rich. Germany's political parties have reacted by boosting public spending and are considering wide tax cuts.
'There is a political swing towards what were once considered the ideas of the political left such as minimum wages, benefits and so on,' said Holgar Schaefer, labour economist at the Cologne Institute of Economics. 'It is a tendency that is only likely to become more obvious in coming years.'
The same thing is happening elsewhere. In France, there has been a mass mobilisation of teachers and pupils against plans to slash staffing levels. 'It is completely unprecedented,' said author and journalist Ariane Chemin.
'There is a potentially explosive combination of political disillusion with a fascination for politics. Young people are both deeply cynical and deeply politicised. They are at the school gates calling teachers who work "scabs". We haven't seen anything like it for years.'
But it may be that, instead of the demise of the European class, we are merely witnessing its evolution. Daniel Gros, of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, said the middle classes across Europe were 'splintering'. 'The homogeneous middle class that you once had based on industry and a protected government sector is disappearing,' he said.
The political and social consequences are already visible. The success of Nicolas Sarkozy is one, according to Gros. 'The old massive blocs of Gaullist right and Socialist left based on clear understandings of what it is to be working class and socialist have broken down,' he said. 'Sarkozy's appeal cut across those classic divisions.'
Analysts also point out that the 'hardship' of the middle classes is relative - according to the European Commission, there are an estimated 16 million people in the EU at risk of poverty. 'The decline in standards of living for young middle class people is pretty moderate when compared with the very dramatic situation of their counterparts in totally marginalised communities such as the poor French suburbs,' said Professor Ian Begg of the London School of Economics.
'And it is an extremely varied picture. New service sector jobs can be low grade and badly paid - such as night shifts for an IT company - or very lucrative. Collectively, Europe is richer than it has ever been. Average income has been going up pretty well without a blip since 1945 and whatever the disparities some of that has filtered down to pretty much everybody.'
Begg pointed out that, with economic and social changes, a certain amount of 'blurring' was inevitable. 'There is a trend towards a certain classlessness and some win and some lose. Jobs that were previously passports to stable middle-class incomes and wealth no longer are. And those who lose out most tend to shout loudest.'
Across Spain, France and Italy, young middle-class professionals with good degrees and diplomas are facing a lifetime on low salaries with unrewarding jobs, forever poorer than their parents. Investigation by Graham Keeley in Barcelona, Jason Burke in Paris and Tom Kington in Rome
Graham Keeley
Article history
The Observer, Sunday May 11 2008 Article history
The kids learning to swim at the pool near Via Casilina, in a working-class suburb of Rome, could not ask for better qualified instructors. One is a literature graduate with a masters in communications from Brussels, while another, Antonio di Martino, is an aerospace engineer.
Di Martino, 30, still has to finish his degree, but with a one-year-old baby and another child on the way, and afternoons and evenings working at the pool to bring in €1,100 (£870) a month, something had to give.
'Some of the pressure to graduate also slipped away when I saw one friend get his degree and then only earn €500 a month at an Italian space firm and another get €800 a month at the European Space Agency,' said Di Martino, bouncing his son on his knee as his partner, Mattia, rushes out the door to her teaching job, which pays €1,200 a month. 'My parents bought me my flat, making me one of the lucky ones since prices are crazy and I would never get a mortgage,' he said. 'I spent two years of savings on doing up the bathroom and now I worry about my son. One problem, one unforeseen expense and things get serious.'
He said price checking in supermarkets was the norm - 'something my mother never did'. And the family thinks hard before travelling. 'With petrol and tolls, even a trip to my parents in southern Italy now costs €100.'
Di Martino is part of a new phenomenon sweeping Europe. As he spoke, Africa Garcia Arias, 32, was nearing the end of a 45-hour week in a busy Madrid hospital. Six months pregnant, Arias will scale back her working week in the coming month. But, though she is exhausted, this is hardly much relief. Her salary of €1,600 will drop to €1,000 a month.
On Friday night, Lorenzo, 35, was on a train heading to work a nightshift for a major American sales website's Berlin branch. He trained as a historian and a photographer. 'The pay is just about OK - €2,700 a month for a 40-hour week - but it is hardly the job I dreamed of doing,' he said.
And in Paris, Nathalie, 24, was sitting in a friend's tiny rented flat in the rundown 20th arrondissement, the poorest district of the city, having finished another month of unpaid 'work experience' for a major publishing company. Tomorrow she will be at the second home of her parents in Brittany to sit in the sun in the garden, read and swim. 'I look at how they live, and how they lived when they were my age or a few years older, and I realise that I will never have any of that,' she said. 'I am not sure whether to be angry, sad or simply resigned.'
With inflation soaring, property prices sky high, wages relatively static, labour markets gridlocked and sluggish or slowing economies, Nathalie, Lorenzo, Arias and Di Martino are among tens of millions of Europeans raised to expect that their degrees and diplomas will assure them a relatively high quality of life who are now realising that the world has changed. The disappointment is a shock with big political, social, cultural, even demographic consequences.
'I am angry. I know a lot of people who are in the same situation and our qualifications are not being rewarded,' said Arias. For Nathalie, the weekend in her parents' seaside home will leave 'a bitter taste in my mouth'.
Freelance architect Emilio Tinoco Vertiz, 32, earns just €1,000 a month. 'Who needs architects when no one wants to build houses?' he said. In Spain people such as Emilio are known from their pay as the 'mileuristas' (thousand euro-ers). In France they are the 'babylosers' - a term coined by sociologist Louis Chauvel to contrast them with 'babyboomers'. According to Chauvel, 41, a sociologist at the National Foundation for Political Science, for the first time in recent history a generation of French citizens aged between 20 and 40 can expect a lower standard of living than the one before. 'Mileuristas or babylosers: it's the same story,' he said. 'They have an average of three years more education than their parents, a worse job and a lower standard of living.'
In 1973, only 6 per cent of recent university leavers in France were unemployed; now the rate is 25 to 30 per cent; salaries have stagnated for 20 years while property prices have doubled or trebled, though the overall proportion of French people living in poverty has not changed. Whereas in the 1960s the poor were mainly the old, now they are the young; in 1970, salaries for 50-year-olds were only 15 per cent higher than those for workers of 30; the gap now is 40 per cent.
'Some talk of a war between the generations, but that's a little simplistic. It is more that the system means that the haves are keeping what they have and no one is helping the have-nots,' said Chauvel. 'The big determinant in France now of success is not your educational level but the wealth of your parents, if they can support you during your twenties as you fight your way into a closed employment market.'
French economists speak of 'insiders and outsiders'. The insiders are those who already have a job and are well-defended by the battery of French laws protecting the workforce and the unions. The outsiders are those without work which, naturally, include newcomers on the job market. Chauvel says the problem is particularly bad in Latin countries where parents are expected to support their children much longer.
In Spain, even during the boom years when growth outstripped the rest of the European Union, the 'mileuristas' found themselves unable to afford their own homes. But now with the Spanish economy crashing, prospects are grim. In the first three months of 2008, Spanish unemployment hit 9.6 per cent, the highest for three years and second only to Slovakia in the 27-nation EU.
Once one of Europe's success stories, Spain's Socialist government has been forced to cut its 2008 growth estimate to 2.3 per cent from 3.1 per cent. Josep Comajuncosa, a macro-economics specialist at the Esade business school in Barcelona, said the downturn may help the 'mileuristas' buy homes but it will not solve their basic problem. 'What is needed is a model of growth based on greater productivity and new industries primarily service-based such as IT, financial services and new technology which can raise salaries,' he said.
In an effort to save Spain from the worst effects of the downturn, the government has announced an ambitious public works programme, including a massive social housing plan that could help many to finally buy property. Such policies are likely to become common.
In Germany, according to a report published by consultancy McKinsey, those earning between 70 and 150 per cent of the average income - the standard definition of the middle class - will make up less than half the population by 2020, against 54 per cent today.
Only eight years ago, 62 per cent of Germans were in the middle-class bracket, according to a second study. Key markers of middle-class status - such as overseas holidays - are disappearing or becoming blurred. 'I haven't been away for two years,' said Aurel Thurn, 38, who works for an art gallery in Berlin and has top-level qualifications, 10 years' experience and speaks four languages fluently. 'I have enough money for my rent, my telephone and food. But that's it.'
Many feel that Germany's middle class has not benefited from the nation's recent economic recovery. The result has been political pressure, with trade union activism and a wave of industrial action aimed at securing higher wages and enhanced benefits as well as lower taxes for average earners and higher taxes on the rich. Germany's political parties have reacted by boosting public spending and are considering wide tax cuts.
'There is a political swing towards what were once considered the ideas of the political left such as minimum wages, benefits and so on,' said Holgar Schaefer, labour economist at the Cologne Institute of Economics. 'It is a tendency that is only likely to become more obvious in coming years.'
The same thing is happening elsewhere. In France, there has been a mass mobilisation of teachers and pupils against plans to slash staffing levels. 'It is completely unprecedented,' said author and journalist Ariane Chemin.
'There is a potentially explosive combination of political disillusion with a fascination for politics. Young people are both deeply cynical and deeply politicised. They are at the school gates calling teachers who work "scabs". We haven't seen anything like it for years.'
But it may be that, instead of the demise of the European class, we are merely witnessing its evolution. Daniel Gros, of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, said the middle classes across Europe were 'splintering'. 'The homogeneous middle class that you once had based on industry and a protected government sector is disappearing,' he said.
The political and social consequences are already visible. The success of Nicolas Sarkozy is one, according to Gros. 'The old massive blocs of Gaullist right and Socialist left based on clear understandings of what it is to be working class and socialist have broken down,' he said. 'Sarkozy's appeal cut across those classic divisions.'
Analysts also point out that the 'hardship' of the middle classes is relative - according to the European Commission, there are an estimated 16 million people in the EU at risk of poverty. 'The decline in standards of living for young middle class people is pretty moderate when compared with the very dramatic situation of their counterparts in totally marginalised communities such as the poor French suburbs,' said Professor Ian Begg of the London School of Economics.
'And it is an extremely varied picture. New service sector jobs can be low grade and badly paid - such as night shifts for an IT company - or very lucrative. Collectively, Europe is richer than it has ever been. Average income has been going up pretty well without a blip since 1945 and whatever the disparities some of that has filtered down to pretty much everybody.'
Begg pointed out that, with economic and social changes, a certain amount of 'blurring' was inevitable. 'There is a trend towards a certain classlessness and some win and some lose. Jobs that were previously passports to stable middle-class incomes and wealth no longer are. And those who lose out most tend to shout loudest.'
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Iran dumps U.S. dollar for oil trades
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran, OPEC's second-largest producer, has stopped conducting oil transactions in U.S. dollars, a top Oil Ministry official said Wednesday, in a concerted attempt to reduce reliance on Washington at a time of tension over Tehran's nuclear program and suspected involvement in Iraq.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's President, has called the dollar a 'worthless piece of paper.'
Iran has dramatically reduced dependence on the dollar over the past year in the face of increasing U.S. pressure on its financial system and the fall in the value of the American currency.
Oil is priced in dollars on the world market, and the currency's depreciation has concerned producers because it has contributed to rising crude prices and eroded the value of their dollar reserves.
"The dollar has totally been removed from Iran's oil transactions," Oil Ministry official Hojjatollah Ghanimifard told state-run television Wednesday. "We have agreed with all of our crude oil customers to do our transactions in non-dollar currencies."
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called the depreciating dollar a "worthless piece of paper" at a rare summit last year in Saudi Arabia attended by state leaders from OPEC countries.
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